The Bucks new season challenge: How far can Antetokounmpo do? Can Kuzma rebound?

Translator's note: The original text was published in The Athletic. The data in the article are as of the time of the original text (September 16 local time). The dates and times involved are all local time

Bucks will hold a media day event on September 29, officially starting the 2025-26 season, less than two weeks away.

As the players start to return to Milwaukee one after another, it's time to start thinking about the upcoming season and what might happen. For the first time since Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the MVP discussion in 2018, the Bucks were left out of discussions with the Eastern Conference champions' favorites in the first preseason. But that doesn't mean the upcoming season will lack highlights.

With this in mind, let's take a closer look at the five issues that may determine their new season. How much can Giannis Antetokounmpo do?

In the past two seasons, Antetokounmpo has averaged at least 30 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists per game, and has a shooting percentage of more than 60%. He is the only player in NBA history to play this performance, and the only player since Cincinnati Real's Oscar Robertson in the 1961-62 season to average at least 30 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists (not taking into account the shooting percentage).

Despite his amazing output, the Bucks will likely need him to do more this season as the team cut Damian Lillard with extension clauses in the offseason and enter a new era.

Miles Turner is an excellent player who should help the team improve offensive output, but even his highest-scoring season (averages 18 points per game with the Pacers in 2022-23), he averaged nearly 7 points less than Lillard's average last season. It's obvious that the Bucks will rely on multiple players to make up for Lillard's output together, but it's not just his score to be filled. Lillard was the Bucks' assists last season (7.1 times per game), so the organizational vacancy also needs to be filled.

As an organizational forward, or whatever the team calls this position this season, Antetokounmpo will take on additional scoring and organizational tasks. But to a certain extent, what a player can do is limited after all. Antetokounmpo will have the opportunity to show the world how much he can do, and he always enjoys it, but this season may eventually reveal his limits in this regard.

Who will step up at the point guard position?

Lillard's time in Milwaukee was not as smooth as the Bucks had hoped for him two years ago. Lillard averaged 24.6 points and 7.1 assists in 131 games and started in the past two All-Star games, but the Bucks failed to get the playoff success they wanted around the pair of NBA 75 superstar combinations.

However, Lillard still made a significant contribution with his scoring and organizational abilities. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Bucks ranked sixth in offensive efficiency in the 2023-24 season, while the previous season ranked seventh in offensive efficiency. Although Lillard was able to maintain the team's offense when Antetokounmpo was not on the court, the Bucks struggled on the defensive end. When Lillard took over the team and Antetokounmpo rested, their net efficiency was negative.

Antetokounmpo and Lillard are on the court at the same time: offensive efficiency 117.9, defensive efficiency 112.5

Lillard is on the court, Antetokounmpo is not on the court: offensive efficiency 114.2, defensive efficiency 121.3

Antetokounmpo is on the court, Lillard is not on the court: offensive efficiency 124.3, defensive efficiency 115.3

With Lillard now in the Trail Blazers, Kevin Porter, Ryan Rollins and Cole Anthony have ushered in a huge opportunity, among which Kerr Anthony was signed by the Bucks after being bought out by the Grizzlies in July. Given Lillard's ball-holding score and the frequency of organization, the Bucks will need all three players to come forward and work with Antetokounmpo to fill the gap in organizational offense. In addition, the Bucks may have more opportunities to make progress on the defensive end. How much can Miles Turner contribute?

While playing for the Pacers, Miles Turner led the NBA blocks twice, averaging 2.7 games in the 2018-19 season and 3.4 games in the 2020-21 season. According to Basketball Reference, Turner was one of only 12 players in the NBA who were 6-foot-10-inch (about 2.08 meters) or higher, averaged at least five three-pointers per game, and shot a career-high 39.6% with 5.5 shots per game.

If the Bucks want to go further in the playoffs, they need Turner to play a high level on both sides of the offense and defense.

This is exactly the tactical pattern the Bucks have adopted in Brooke Lopez over the past seven years. On the offensive end, he was asked to shoot a long-range three-pointer to open up space for Antetokounmpo. On the defensive end, he was asked to protect the rim and block shots, thus liberating Antetokounmpo, allowing him to block and interfere with the passing route as a wandering defender. Although Lopez's rebounding stats are average, his ability to occupy space and place positions helped the Bucks dominate the rebounds. Turner has also shown no ability to dominate rebounds in the past, but that may change after playing alongside Antetokounmpo.

In order to assist Antetokounmpo, the Bucks will also make many demands on Turner. While Lopez did these duties brilliantly during his time with the Bucks, he was never asked to be the team's second scorer.. His highest score season was in the 2022-23 season, when he ranked third among the Bucks, behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ju Holiday (19.3 points). That season, Lopez also ranked second in the vote for the Defensive Player of the Year.

requires Turner to contribute more points while also playing defensive performance of that level, which is a very high requirement, but this may be exactly what the Bucks need him to do this season. Can Kyle Kuzma usher in a rebound season? Before the trading deadline, the Bucks sent Chris Middleton and rookie defender AJ Johnson to the Wizards in exchange for Kyle Kuzma in an operation that eventually evolved into a four-party trade. The deal saved the Bucks a lot of luxury tax, gave them huge financial flexibility and also brought Kuzma to his third NBA team.

Despite having a chance to play on a playoff team after the Wizards spent 3 and a half seasons, Kuzma never found a rhythm in the Bucks. In his 33 regular season games, he averaged 31.8 minutes per game, scoring 14.5 points and 5.6 rebounds, but he struggled extremely in the playoffs (5.8 points, 2.2 rebounds, 34.3% shooting percentage, 20% three-point shooting percentage). In Game 5 Elimination Against the Pacers, head coach Doug Rivers switched to other players and allowed Kuzma to play for only 13 minutes.

With the team's second and fourth scorers - Lillard and Lopez - leaving the team in the offseason, the Bucks players will have more opportunities to contribute more in the 2025-26 season, and Kuzma may be one of the beneficiaries of these changes. To achieve this, he needs to play at a higher level than last season and far better than the playoffs.

What lineups will Doug Rivers rely on?

After last season's All-Star Weekend, Rivers launched a new starting lineup consisting of Lillard, Torrion Prince, Kuzma, Antetokounmpo and Lopez. According to Cleaning the Glass, the lineup has a net efficiency of +6.7 in 428 rounds in the regular season, but in this roster, Prince and Kuzma are misplaced as shooting guards and small forwards, respectively.

When Lillard was absent due to deep vein thrombosis, Rivers replaced Lillard with Rollins and continued to let Porter play a substitute. The lineup has a net efficiency of +13 in 294 rounds in the regular season, but Rivers gradually abandoned Prince and Kuzma as the Bucks played the playoff series against the Pacers.

Game 1: Kuzma played 21 minutes and 35 seconds, Prince played 19 minutes and 37 seconds, 3}

Game 2: Kuzma played 31 minutes and Prince played 19 minutes and 25 seconds, 3}

Game 3: Kuzma played 20 minutes and 36 seconds, Prince played 3:07 seconds, 3}

Game 4: Kuzma played 16 minutes and 03 seconds, Prince played 14 minutes and 47 seconds, 3}

Game 5: Kuzma played 12 minutes and 45 seconds, Prince played 4 minutes and 14 seconds

In Game 5, Rivers replaced Prince and Rollins with AJ Green and Gary Trent Jr. to start, and let Porter replace Rollins in the rotation. Green and Trent played together for 41 minutes in the 53 minutes of the game, including the fourth quarter and the last 17 minutes of overtime. The Bucks lost Game 5 in a heartbreaking way — and the entire series — but that one had a very different roster than the one at the beginning of the series. After playing a big roster in the second half of the regular season, Rivers turned to a much smaller roster in the Bucks' key knockout match. How willing will he be to experiment with different lineup combinations this season?

Author: Eric Nehm

Translator: GWayNe