ESPN expert team predicts the awards of the new season: Jokic returns to the king or Doncic wins the MVP for the first time

Translator's note: The original text was published on ESPN, and the data in the article were as of the time of the original text (August 26 local time). The dates and times involved are local time

This season, which players will win the trophy of the main awards?

Last season, Shea Gilgers Alexander became the first player to win both the Finals MVP and the regular season MVP in the same season since LeBron James in 2013. This season, not only the MVP, but the top spots of other major awards will also be fierce.

High-profile No. 1 pick Cooper Flag is expected to win the Rookie of the Year. But in this talented rookie, he will certainly face some challenges, including Spurs' Dylan Harper, who can win the award back for the team's third straight season.

Also, please keep an eye on the battle for the best defensive player of the year, as last season's leader Victor Vinbanyama will return to the field this season after failing to meet the 65-game qualification threshold.

We invited our summer forecasting expert group - an NBA expert team of journalists, editors and analysts - to vote for the top three for the NBA's six major awards, with the first place winning 5 points, the second place winning 3 points and the third place winning 1 point.

Note: Our 2025-26 NBA summer forecast will continue tomorrow, which will bring the record predictions of the East and West leagues. Yesterday, we released our forecasts for the teams that have made the most progress and the teams that have regressed the most, and answered some of the biggest questions.

Related Reading: NBA New Season Preview: Who is the biggest counterattack dark horse? Which super giant will seek a deal?

The following are the results:

Who will be elected as the NBA MVP?

Nicola Jokic, Nuggets: 83 points

Luca Doncic, Lakers: 62 points

Shea Gilgers Alexander, Thunder: 46 points

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks/Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves: 9 points

Kevin Durant, Rockets: 8 points

Either the aesthetic fatigue of the voters is quickly fading, or the voters are impressed by Nicola Jokic's head-on battle with Shea Gilgers Alexander in the second round of the 2025 playoffs. The three-time MVP was overwhelmingly popular for the fourth time in our pre-season survey, with nearly twice as many votes as new MVP Gilgers Alexander.

Voters also seem to be impressed by Luca Doncic's offseason figure change, with the successful Lakers point guard ranked second in the early voting. Team success always becomes a big factor in the voting, which may be why Gilgers Alexander slipped to third place here. In other words, he has promoted the Thunder to the championship level and has been recognized as an MVP for doing this. But what if he and the youngest championship team in decades can reach a higher level?

Who will be selected as the NBA Rookie of the Year?

Cooper Flag, Mavericks: 121 points

Dylan Harper, Spurs: 38 points

VJ Edgecom, 76ers: 25 points

Kon Kniper, Hornets: 18 points

Ece Bailey, Jazz: 16 points

As expected, Flag was far ahead in the voting: he was the best player in this class, brought NBA-level comprehensiveness, and would play a potentially important role in a team with playoff hopes and experienced players. This award is often a combination of talent and opportunity, and when Flag entered the league, both reached the best combination.

Harper and Edgecomb ranked second and third, and both players can have a huge impact as rookies. The question in both cases will be how big a role they can win in their respective crowded back lines and whether that will provide a big enough platform for them to win the Rookie of the Year honors. On paper, Flag has temporarily gained a huge advantage.

Who will be elected as the defensive player of the year?

Victor Vinbanyama, Spurs: 95 points

Evan Mobri, Cavaliers: 31 points

Chet Homgren, Thunder: 20 points

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: 16 points

Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves: 14 points

Deep vein thrombosis in the right shoulder caused Spurs talent Victor Vinbanyama to lose his chance to be elected NBA defensive player of the year for the first time last season, because the 21-year-old failed to meet the 65-game eligibility threshold when the season was reimbursed on February 20. Despite playing only 46 games last season, Vinbanyama still leads the league in blocks (176 times) and is far ahead of second-place Brooke Lopez (148 times). In addition, he averaged 1.1 steals per game. And when he was on the court, the Spurs had a defensive efficiency of 115.4 (121.4 when he was not on the court).

It would be an accident if Vinbanyama played at least 65 games this season but failed to overwhelm the new Co DPOY Evan Mobri and other competitors such as Chet Homgren, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert to win the award.

As a former defensive player of the year winner, Antetokounmpo ranked eighth in the award voting last season, leading four-time winner Rudy Gobert, who ranked 13th. Please pay attention to how the Bucks might free Antetokounmpo from introducing Miles Turner in the offseason, causing great damage to his opponent's offense.

Who will be elected the sixth person of the year?

Alex Caruso, Thunder: 66 points

Naz Reed, Timberwolves: 52 points

Nikil Alexander Walker, Hawks: 39 points

Peton Prichard, Celtics: 18 points

Ty Jerome, Grizzlies: 17 points

Will voters pay more attention to subtle effects than data? That must be the case if Alex Caruso is to win this award in the upcoming season.

This honor is traditionally awarded to players who can provide instant offensive fire from the bench. The sixth man of the year averaged only single digits, the last time it happened thirty years ago, and this has only happened three times in the history of the award. The impact Caruso had in his first season with the Thunder, especially during the playoffs, was undisputed. But he averaged just 7.1 points per game during the regular season, when he won only one third-place vote in the Sixth Person of the Year vote and finished eighth. For Caruso, in his ninth season as a role player, and in a strong lineup of Thunder, there is little chance of a significant increase in scores. The Thunder will continue to carefully manage Caruso's playing time (19.3 minutes per game in 54 games last season), giving priority to ensuring the 31-year-old can stay in shape for another possible playoff in-depth journey and provide growth opportunities for young defenders such as Ajay Mitchell and Nikola Topic. But there is a precedent to win this award with excellent defense and contributing to a championship-winning team, which goes back to the first sixth man of the year in history, Bobby Jones, a 76er in the 1982-83 season.

While the minimum number of appearances for 65 games does not apply to the selection of the best sixth man of the year, the top players in ESPN voting may lose their qualifications because they become starters in the new season. Last season's winners Payton Prechard and Nikil Alexander Walker both have the potential to be starters this season.

Who will be elected as the fastest-progressive player?

Amen Thompson, Rockets: 59 points

Andrew Nemhard, Pacers: 40 points

Osal ​​Thompson, Pistons: 18 points

Deny Avdia, Trail Blazers: 14 points

Jaylen Johnson, Hawks: 14 points

Amen Thompson is far ahead in the award selection, because he is expected to play an important role in a highly anticipated Rockets in the 2025-26 season. Thompson will start his third season in the NBA, he has made progress in his sophomore year and he is not even a full-time starter.

Thompson has established himself as a top defensive player, made the best defensive team, and is currently one of the best ball-holders in the league. Thompson's offense showed signs of improvement in the playoffs, and as the series progressed, his ball possession and jump shot improved, and his scoring data improved, demonstrating his huge potential on the offensive end. This should be improved considering that Thompson will play alongside Kevin Durant this season. Durant is a better offensive core than last season's Rockets players.

Who will be elected coach of the year?

Jamal Mosley, Magic: 48 points

Quinn Snyder, Hawks: 24 points

Ime Uduka, Rockets: 22 points

Mike Brown, Knicks: 21 points

Mickey Johnson, Spurs: 16 points

Jamal Mosley was hired in 2021, and he led the young team to the playoffs twice in a row. But now, Mosley has a roster designed to hit the injury-scared East, and our expert panel predicts Mosley will lead the team to a significant leap and win back the coach of the year honors.

With Desmond Bain bringing much-needed scoring and outside shooting, Tyame Jones bringing solid point guard abilities, Paul Benkairo and Franz Wagner will get a lot of help, and the Magic are expected to win more than 50 games for the first time since the 2010-11 season. Health will be crucial, especially Jaylen Sages's left knee recovery. The Southeast Division rival Hawks, another team that has made major adjustments in the offseason, is expected to compete in the East this season, with head coach Quinn Snyder at the helm.

Author: NBA insiders

Translator: GWayNe